By the way, it's a couple of days old, but there was a great story about Nielsen and whether their Anytime Anywhere measurement system will flop because of privacy concerns.
What You See When You Skip the Ads
A recent NBC study found that even those who fast-forward through ads retain some of the material because they're looking at the screen and focusing on when to hit play. The study noted that the most effective ads with the DVR folks were ones with the logo prominently displayed in the middle of the screen and few scene changes. No surprise there. The story also said advertisers have decided not to tailor their ads toward DVR users.
File this one away for 2011 or 2012. By then, most forecasts have the DVR in more than half of U.S. households. (Currently, about 20% of HH have DVRs.) If the TV landscape is the same at that point and ads are still being skipped without an effective counter-strategy, then advertisers will start designing ads this way. They will have no choice at that point since most of the affluent households will have DVR and this is obviously a very valuable demo to advertisers.
Alien Baby Found? Click Here
If Google is worried about click traffic dropping, the search giant may want to take a page from the web portals in China. After all, it seems that those portals have learned from The New York Post.
Due to intense competition among these sites in China, the portals have decided to promote controversy and watch users flock to their sites to find out what the real story is. If it sounds familiar, the Post has used this model since the Son of Sam days, and it works well. Many of these stories in China revolve around photo-doctoring. This causes the tech crowd to get involved and the portals then have blogs and testimony from experts to argue different sides of the issue. This is the viral media world. Users often don't even read to the end of a story before it's shared with their friends or posted on a blog.
Alphabet Soup: ABC Takes on DVR with Free VOD
In a challenge to DVR ad-skipping practices, ABC is planning on offering its programs via VOD for free. The trick is that the VOD programming will have ads and the fast-forwarding option will be disabled. ABC will sell most of the ads to national advertisers with one slot for local affiliates.
The article notes that in a trial of this VOD service, 20% of users said they would rather use VOD than DVR, which must be programmed. The VOD service will certainly help show sampling because it requires very little commitment, but the beauty of DVR it's easy to use and you can set it and forget it. What the article and the ABC press release didn't say is that people were probably happier to watch the VOD programming because it's free. Ultimately, though, this will only work if all of the networks do the same thing. Then DVR use might be affected.
The State of Journalism: 'Gators Chomping at Newspapers Heels
This is the first in a series of posts on the journalism industry, a.k.a. a chance for me to rant, rattle and roll about the biz.
I only buy The New York Times on the weekend. Even then, I sometimes take a peek at the online version before I head over to the print edition. I never thought I would do such outlandish things. After all, I am a newspaper guy, someone who worked in the biz for several years and relishes sitting down and reading the paper on the weekend. If the industry can't count on me, it has serious problems.
We all know the journalism world is in major upheaval mode. Subscriptions are down and online advertising hasn't made up for the print ad shortfall. The real issue, though, is that most online news readers are getting their news from news aggregators. Sites like Yahoo, Google and MSN provide quick access to zillions of articles on a given topic. They're free and easy to use. The question: what happens when newspapers go out of business because they can't find a viable revenue model? Will there be legitimate news to aggregate?
There will be plenty of content, certainly, and this scenario is not coming for a long time, but it is important to consider. If people aren't paying for online news now, they never will, even if newspapers stop the print version and go strictly online. Do we care if the content is not legitimized by a brand like the Times or The Washington Post?
Citizen journalism is a wonderful thing, but can it really replace news staffs and those who have journalism training? The crazy thing is, it actually could. When I was starting in journalism, everyone told me I just had to go somewhere where I could write, write, write and write some more. Blogs provide that outlet and interviews are just a matter of access. Sure, there isn't any editing on a blog (as seen by some of my typos), but by writing consistently, you do evolve and improve.
Chances are we're headed for some hybrid of citizen/professional journalism online with news alerts to your mobile, your e-mail and the chip embedded in your skin. Maybe then they'll be able to command you to pay for news.
New Fertilizer for the Grassy Knoll
Another chance if you missed out on our first installment of Turn Back the Tech. On to today's post...
Long live the conspiracy! A Dallas County D.A. announced this week that he found files related to JFK's assassination in a vault in his office. To this point the documents had not been made public, but the Dallas D.A. took care of that in a hurry. He passed them on to the Dallas Morning News, which has them on its website with the note, "Given the volume, we haven't been able to review most of the files. That's why were calling on you. Here's your chance to review never-seen-before materials related to the JFK assassination."
This strikes me as a scary combination of citizen journalism and a desperate plea for website traffic. I can only imagine how many blogs will emerge because of this.
Hollywood Feeling the Financial Pinch
Hope you enjoyed our first embedded clip from yesterday's post.
Just a quick Oscars-related post today. The Economist has a really good read on the film industry and how it has failed to embrace the Internet's marketing power. Basically, DVD sales are down, ticket sales are flat and costs are going up. Plus, people are sick of buying the same movie with crappy extra features every three years.
Turn Back the Tech: Fax Machines
The Baron is pleased to bring you this new feature of the blog, Turn Back the Tech. Every now and again, when we find an old tech clip, we will post it for your enjoyment. Today's installment: the fax machine. This clip is from the 1930's (though fax had been around long before that) and features a great explanation of how a fax machine (or wire photo transmission, as they call it) works.
If you want to skip ahead, the explanation begins at about 3:45 into the clip.
Wireless Service via Hot Air Balloon
Crazy story, if you haven't seen it. Google is into the idea of floating hot air balloons in order to provide Internet and cell service to rural areas of the Southwest. Google would work with Space Data, a company that already launches 10 balloons every day.
The main problem is that the balloons last only 24 hours before they get too high in the atmosphere and explode. The wireless components fall back to earth and they are retrieved to use again.
As strange as it seems, it's an incredibly creative solution to the problem of rural web/cell access. Can't wait until we find another use for the beeper or the record player.
The Do-Everything Device Doesn't Get it Done
If you're waiting for the price of smartphones to drop, here is some not-so-good news for you. According to one study, business executives have been slow to adopt one do-everything mobile device. How does this affect you? Well, business people are almost always among the early adopter group because their companies can afford the high initial price and they have a need. That helps spread the technology, competition grows and eventually prices fall.
The prices will still continue to come down because of intense competition, but it's interesting that the biz set has not yet taken to these devices. This could be a real hindrance to the spread of the mobile web. Maybe it's just that everyone wants an iPhone and businesses are not into that idea just yet.
Plenty of Lip Service, No Click Traffic
Have you put your name on the Do Not Call list? Do you shred personal information? Well, then why don't you use a search engine that erases your personal information? You don't know? Well, neither do I. Apparently, people pay a lot of lip service to online privacy, but don't actually follow it through when it comes to deserting search engines that track you and what you search for.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to the fact that people don't realize how much is captured about them when they're online. No other mainstream medium -- TV, radio, newspaper, essentially anything short of a wiretap -- does not produce nearly as much personal information. Since people have no experience with this, they have spent little time thinking about the possible drawbacks to the blessed Internet.
Why, Exactly?
How do you create the anti-blog? Make a blog into a book.
It seems rather bizarre, but it has been done. Sarah Boxer, former Web critic at The New York Times, has written a book about blogs. In it, she selects her favorite blog posts from her favorite blogs and presents them in bound form. Capturing the essence of a blog, which is what Boxer says she is attempting to do, is a tall task and would seem to be quite difficult considering blogs feature links (like this one!), in addition to viciously sharp wit and superb writing (like you'll only find here!). Only two of those things fit into a blog book. Without the experience of reading the embedded link and reading the opinion about it, a blog book is just a book. And we've all got plenty of those.
This Newsweek article explains further. We'll hand them the baton from here.
College Paper Tries to Fight Off Gannett
Gannett -- which owns USA Today among its media properties -- made some headlines about a month ago when it announced it was interested in buying The Collegian, the college newspaper at Colorado State University. Apparently big media has noticed that campus newspapers are well-read by a key demographic that has a great deal of spending power.
The university obviously likes the idea for the amount of money it would generate, but the students, who feel they would no longer be independent, hate it. It's unlikely that Gannett (or any other media company) would want to interfere with student journalism, but it does begin a trip down the slippery slope.
I spent far too much of my time in college in the newspaper office. We were just happy that we had cable in the newsroom. It was an idealistic journalism environment, where you could track down stories and learn to write. Let the students have fun and create interesting, envelope-pushing journalism. That's plenty to do without having to worry about the budget or circulation numbers.
Hardware Holding Back Mobile Web
Mobile, mobile, mobile. Businesses want to be in it even when they don't understand it. Similar to blogs or the Internet itself when they first became mainstream popular, mobile web is it (at least for now). Many companies are not set up to take advantage of mobile advertising or aiding local mobile search, but that's not what has really hindered mobile's widespread diffusion.
More than the cost or ease of use, it's the hardware. If you have a Razr like I do, the battery would probably die before I could do one Google search. Other phones also make it difficult to use. Just look at what the iPhone has done for the mobile web. The iPhone makes the mobile web easy to use, and voila! If you build, it, they will come.
Viacom and Time Warner About To Join Hulu
Hulu, the online video venture from News Corp. and NBC, is about to sign on Viacom and Time Warner, which would give it expanded content and make it the major online destination for the major broadcast and cable networks. All that's missing is the Disney/ABC/ESPN group and that would seal the deal.
In a way, this grouping of the major media companies shows how timid they all are about online TV viewing. It's almost like they're about to walk into a haunted house and they've decided to go with the "safety-in-numbers" approach. Hulu may just be a bridge technology until the networks can figure out where online viewing habits are headed. But for now, it the site is easy to navigate and works fairly well.
Reversing the Trend: From Online to Print
The LA Times, home to plenty of turmoil over the last couple of months, is launching a local print weekly (apart from the paper) aimed at the young and hip.
What's interesting about that? Well, the print publication grew out of a website the Times started, called Metromix Los Angeles. Pretty cool that they built the brand online and then rolled out the print version. It's a good bet to succeed since sales of soft news pubs are going strong despite the slow economy.
Valentine's Day Surprise: Men and Women Are Different
Two mini-posts for the price of none.
In honor of Valentine's Day: A new Nielsen survey says that women prefer to view network TV online by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio, while more than twice as many men prefer sites like YouTube. No surprise on the YouTube side. I show the Baroness hilarious clips all the time from those sites, but she definitely does not enjoy them as much as I do. One surprising note: Online viewers of network TV tend to be loyal to one site over another. This is strange since people don't mind flipping channels on TV from one network to the other. My guess it has to do with feeling comfortable with the online video player more than anything.
Starbucks has finally seen the light and realized that charging customers (at least your most loyal ones) for wireless access is not a good idea. It's about time. Nothing is worse than going into one of those places and getting nickel-and-dimed for 30 minutes of Internet access. I hate when hotels do it also.
HD-DVD May Be Dying a Slow Death
Looks like this could be the end for HD-DVD. In the battle for high-definition movies, HD-DVD got out to an early lead, but lately, the technology can't buy a break. The latest crushing defeat came yesterday when Netflix said it would only rent Blu-ray discs.
The bad news started last month when Warner Bros. -- the biggest movie studio -- backed the Blu-ray format. Then last week, Best Buy indicated it would push Blu-ray equipment as the preferred technology. While this may be bad for Toshiba, which owns the HD-DVD technology, it should be good for consumers, given that a definitive winner may now be emerging. Once that happens, you can buy a high-definition DVD player and movies without worrying that the other standard will be adopted, leaving you SOL.
Being Nielsen is Never Having to Say You're Sorry
It must be nice having a (de facto) monopoly. Nielsen is the big dog in the audience measurement game. The company's ratings are the currency of the TV industry. Plus, Nielsen measures just about everything else and is toying with brain wave measurement.
Well, now the company is in trouble with its clients because its ratings numbers have repeatedly been delayed, including a well-publicized delay after the Super Bowl. Nielsen took the unusual step of writing a letter to its clients, explaining that the numbers may be delayed until March when a new computer system is up and running. It doesn't help Nielsen's image that its main technology center is located in Oldsmar, Fla. Yet, with no other measurement system to turn to, the TV folks just have to grin and bear it.
Meanwhile, Nielsen shrugs and apologizes. "I don’t think we did as good a job as we should have in anticipating these spikes (in different measurements)," a Nielsen exec said. Translation: We know you can't shop anywhere else, so you're just going to have to suck it up.
FCC & HDTV: Uh-Oh
Up until this point, we have all been told that the switch from analog to digital TV will be a smooth one. If you have an analog TV (like the Baroness and I do), you need a converter or a digital cable box and you should be fine.
Not so, says a new study. Apparently, some of the FCC's calculations on how the digital signal will travel may have been a bit generous. This new study says that nearly 10% of viewers without HDTV could have problems picking up the signal in some large markets. You have to wonder if this is just a ploy to sell more HDTVs. If it's not, and I work at the FCC, it's going to be a bad Monday morning.
Looking into Technology's Crystal Ball
As I mentioned yesterday, we're in a slow news cycle, so let's look back instead of looking forward. The Wall Street Journal recently ran a report on Technology, which featured an article on what they predicted 10 years ago. It's an amusing read and clearly, even educated guesses about the future of technology are still very much guesses.
The most amusing prediction? One forecaster "predicted that people would use the Internet to monitor their light bulbs and order replacements right away if a bulb burned out." How many technology forecasters does it take to...? Ah, you know the rest.
Poll: Nearly One-Third of Companies Have Wasted Their Money on a Poll Like This
A rather light news day today, with lots of Microhoo talk and not a whole lot else. When that happens, you can always count on someone conducting an inane study that produces publicity grabbing results. Today's example comes from across the pond. Comet, a TV manufacturer in England, is here to tell us that nearly half of British men would give up sex for six months in exchange for a 50-inch plasma TV.
Other findings from the waste-of-money study: Nearly one-third of women would also give up sex for six months, and a quarter of the respondents said they would give up smoking or chocolate.
Nielsen Moving Toward Brain Metrics
Nielsen, the audience measurement giant, has decided to buy a stake in NeuroFocus, a company that determines how your brainwaves respond to ads and products millisecond by millisecond. As Nielsen head Susan Whiting explained, "This alliance will enable us to gather truly unique insights about the consumers' attitudes and behavior about which they themselves may not even be fully aware."
Yikes. I guess this means they'll be able to tell that I secretly like Fox's The Moment of Truth. Oh well, at least I know I hate Howie Mandel. Even my own brain couldn't fool me on that one.
Many Motives to Monetizing the Mobile Market
Lost in much of the Microsoft-Yahoo coverage is the fact that the pairing of the two companies would give Microsoft a potentially large advantage in cornering the mobile market. Microsoft has the operating system and Yahoo provides the applications -- a beautiful marriage.
Mobile marketing/advertising/monetizing is the next great digital frontier to be conquered. Americans have only started to use cellphones to their full capabilities. Businesses are salivating over the possibilities, like this one. RIP, the sandwich board. Do you think the lunch specials would beam to your phone in a chalk-like font?
Online Viewing Rules Over VOD
The Baroness and I have watched shows online -- not many but a few -- when the DVR has failed and we have missed episodes. It's a very pleasant experience and is incredibly convenient. We have rarely watched any VOD (though this could be because we have dreaded Cablevision). With that said, the numbers from this Solutions Research Group study are somewhat surprising.
According to the study, 20% of Internet users watched a show online each week and 14% watched some VOD programming each week. I assume a large percentage of the VOD comes from folks who have Comcast, which is pushing hard with its free-VOD-with-ads model. Still, I was very surprised at the overall usage numbers for both segments. It would have also been helpful to know if the results had been broken down into free VOD versus pay-per-view, but alas, no such luck.
The Super Bowl Ad Disconnect
We promise this will be the last post on the Super Bowl (most likely). The ads, of course, have received plenty of attention, from the sky-high cost to the post-game rankings. What's interesting if you think back to it (or go back and view them again as I did), is how few companies used the Web to their advantage. According to the MediaPost story, while 84% of ads included a URL, only 26% of the ads (including the dot-coms) featured any sort of call-to-action.
There's plenty of lip-service paid to the power of the Internet in regard to advertising, but there seemed to be a disconnect here. Sure, you can see the ads again on MySpace or Hulu, but most of the companies did not run deeply integrated campaigns which used the Web to provide added value. This sentence from the story sums it up: "And while almost half of all 2008 Super Bowl advertisers had an official YouTube page or social networking profile--not one of them made mention of their presence in the TV spot."
Any Friend of The Baron's, Should Be a Friend of Yours
Shameless plug alert: One of The Baron's oldest friends, Oren Kaunfer, has started writing for the NY Sun, filling in for the paper's parenting writer who's on maternity leave. Here is his first column, dealing with one of life's major problems (at least for New Yorkers).
Super Numbers for Super Bowl
No surprise at all, but yesterday's Super Bowl posted a big number. What may be surprising is that based on sheer numbers it was second on the list of most watched TV shows in U.S TV history! Maybe even more surprising, the MASH series finale drew the biggest audience ever.
This is why the networks can charge $2.7 million for a 30-second ad and companies pass it over without thinking twice. In the increasingly fragmented media world, the Super Bowl never fails to deliver. Even better, the ads are part of the spectacle and they get plenty of coverage before and after the game.
Can Microhoo Challenge Google?
Just a quick post on this Monday, sandwiched in between Super Bowl Sunday and Super Tuesday. It's very interesting how things have changed in regard to Microsoft. The company was once considered the great big bully on the block. These days, even though Microsoft still retains many of those qualities, the proposed merger with Yahoo has some thinking that it would be a good thing to have a challenger to Google in the search/online ad market.
If this Yahoo-Microsoft deal goes through, one of the most interesting pieces will be whether Microsoft decides to challenge the open source software piece of Google's business. Google has had some success with its open source applications and that area is only growing as users become more comfortable with it. Microsoft, of course, built itself on the sale of its proprietary software, which has the overwhelming share of the market.
Broadband and the U.S.: Slip Sliding Away
In America, we like to think of ourselves as part of the most technologically advanced nation on Earth. Or at least somewhere close to the top of the list. The truth is, as it relates to the penetration of broadband technology, we are ranked 15th in the world and we are sliding. But you can thank your lucky stars we don't live in Paraguay.
Why mention this now? Well, the National Telecommunications and Information Administration just published a report telling us that all is well. (Isn't that shocking from a Bush Administration department?) The folks at Ars Technica have done a nice job explaining why the report misses the point. Basically, our numbers of folks with broadband may be increasing, but they are not increasing as quickly as other countries and that can mean lost economic opportunities down the road.
An interesting sidebar to this conversation comes from The Economist, which examines the incredible growth of Internet use in China. It's a inside look at how the Chinese use the Internet differently than most other developed countries.
Social Networking No Longer as Social
For those of you that thought my confusion about Facebook was just a rant, well, you were right. But some surprising numbers in both total audience and more importantly in engagement show that social networking has a long way to go before it takes over the world.
The audience numbers for MySpace have dropped more than 4% since October. The story goes on to say: "Time spent on Bebo.com has been sliced in half over the last four months, while Friendster’s time spent has plummeted nearly 75% in the same time period. Overall, minutes spent per site fell 5% in December 2007 compared to the year-ago period." Even the great Facebook is not immune. The site's audience numbers have improved, but its engagement metrics are down.
That's the beauty of the web, right? You can go nuts looking at all sorts of different metrics.
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